In Most-Watched House Race, Kara Eastman Takes a Second Shot

Kara Eastman, a social worker and nonprofit leader, is taking her second shot at unseating Republican Rep. Don Bacon, who beat her by just 2 percentage points two years ago. Her victory would be a rebuke to business-friendly elements of the Democratic Party, which did not seriously back her in 2018, on the assumption that progressives can’t win in red districts.

In 2018, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee backed Brad Ashford in the primary; Ashford is a conservative Democrat with a record as an anti-choice state legislator. After Eastman defeated Ashford in the primary, the DCCC spent relatively little on the general election, backing Eastman with just $300,000 toward her race. This time around, though, the DCCC made substantial investments in Eastman, spending at least $2.5 million to elect her.

Eastman has made a point this year to go after Bacon for his vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act, and to take away protections from individuals with preexisting conditions. Bacon claims he now supports the Affordable Care Act. “I am here to fix the system and make it better,” he claimed in a debate last month. Bacon, in turn, has tried to paint Eastman as a radical for supporting Medicare for All. Eastman says she began to see the need for major health care reform after her mother was diagnosed with cancer in 2016, and her doctor prescribed her a $2,500 pill she couldn’t afford to get.

Eastman has been a competitive fundraiser throughout the election, raising $3.6 million, next to Bacon’s $3.4 million. In addition to the DCCC’s support, progressive groups are also hoping to help Eastman win the seat with some final-stretch spending. Justice Democrats has launched a $350,000 independent expenditure to help elect her, funding ads across digital platforms, broadcast, and TV in the district. The Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Rebellion PAC have also teamed up to launch a six-figure independent expenditure, as is the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, which is spending six figures.

Indivisible, which endorsed Eastman in 2018, did not endorse this cycle but did send mail on her behalf, and donated $5,000 to her campaign. The Working Families Party endorsed Eastman earlier this month, and is spending on ads in concert with MoveOn and Justice Democrats.

Still, Bacon likely has a money edge overall. A number of super PACs, including the American Bankers Association, have spent more than $5 million to defend Bacon, and according to the Center for Responsive Politics, outside groups backing Bacon have so far outspent Eastman groups.

This year, Eastman beat Ann Ashford — Brad Ashford’s wife — in the Democratic primary. Earlier this month, Brad Ashford announced he would be endorsing Bacon, a blow to Democrats. While Ashford praised the incumbent’s spirit of bipartisanship, Bacon has voted with Trump more than 92 percent of the time. Ann Ashford has not made an endorsement.

Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which covers the Omaha metro area, also carries importance for the presidential race: It has its own Electoral College vote. Joe Biden endorsed Eastman in September, in one of his first rounds of congressional endorsements. Most polling shows a tight race between Biden and Trump in the district, though Trump is leading statewide. A poll released in early October by the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC showed Biden had support from 53 percent of likely voters in the district, compared with 42 percent for Trump. The Cook Political Report ranks the race as a “Republican toss-up.”