Yuri Hanychenko, a senior researcher at the Kyiv School of Economics, says that the number of detected cases consists of two numbers: the real number of people who have fallen ill multiplied by the percentage of cases actually identified.
“Let’s imagine that the real number of cases is 100 people. Yesterday, 30 of them were found, and today 70. This growth seems to double out of the blue. This number strongly depends on how many cases are found. In Ukraine, the problem is how infected persons are identified. The number of detected cases can jump up: if the testing rate increases, so does the number of cases,” says Hanychenko, who believes the rate at which people are hospitalised should also be taken into account.
“If the rate of hospitalisation goes down, it’s a good sign. In order to make informed decisions in the country, you need to understand what is happening with the rate of infection. Therefore, our recommendation was to move from the number of cases to the rate of hospitalisation [as a deciding factor]. The state listened, and now we have the hospitalisation rate, including fluctuations, in our quarantine indicators.”
‘Living in this hell’
The Monsters Corporation charity in Odesa is also fighting the third wave. Founded in 2014, the organisation, led by volunteer Kateryna Nozhevnikova, was originally set up to help orphans from Luhansk, then in the midst of war, settle in Odesa. Now the charity is helping provide oxygen concentrators in their native city and beyond.
“I’m not superstitious at all, but I monitor the situation and know our hospitals from the inside for many, many years. It was clear that mechanical ventilation was needed, but not in that amount,” says Nozhevnikova. “We started buying oxygen in July and I queued up wherever possible. There were very big supply disruptions and it was almost impossible to buy oxygen.”
There’s outrage in Nozhevnikova’s voice when she talks about how citizens adhere to quarantine measures in Odesa. “There are still arguments on the internet about how the virus is not real. It’s like we’re in two parallel worlds: I am at work, living in this hell, then I go out into the city and you think everything is fine, nothing is happening.”
Nozhevnikova says she never complains: it’s her choice to do what she does. But as we talk, the volunteer says that she is very tired – physically and mentally. “It’s very hard to listen when a 30-year-old man calls you and you cannot help. When patients call you and say their dad is dead, their son is dead, their brother is dead – it’s very hard.”
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Tetiana Bezruk | Radio Free (2021-04-21T03:00:08+00:00) “We are constantly one step behind”: Inside Ukraine’s third wave. Retrieved from https://www.radiofree.org/2021/04/21/we-are-constantly-one-step-behind-inside-ukraines-third-wave/
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