Monroe Doctrine: the Bad Neighbor Returns

The man behind the curtain. Still from Wizard of Oz.

President Trump signaled the Monroe Doctrine’s return from the start of his second term. A volatile mix of geopolitical, hemispheric and local politics was in play. The world’s largest reserves of “Texas Tea” turned the wandering Eye of Sauron in Washington on the birthplace of the Bolivarian Revolution. The Trump Administration intends to juice US and global economic growth by reducing energy costs, as we saw in the 1980s and 1990s when oil prices dropped. Fossil fuels are the Trump Administration’s preferred choice of dirty energy to fuel the AI boom, which the US intends to lead. Oil-laden tankers departing from Venezuela en route to China are not part of the program.

Meanwhile, the Trump Administration treats the American public like turnip truck rubes. While Trump, in Oscar Zoroaster Phadrig Isaac Norman Henkel Emmannuel Ambroise Diggs fashion, blows sulfurous clouds of smoke behind the curtain regarding drugs and DEA arrests, we are expected to ignore that Venezuela’s neighbor, Colombia by several multiples, is the bigger exporter of illicit substances to the United States. Fortunately for Colombia, they have the 34^th largest reserves of oil in the world, rather than first, and unlike Venezuela, are supplicants to the United States, ergo, expect none of their leadership to be arrested and dragged off in handcuffs by Uncle Sam’s, ahem, DEA Agents.

Latin America had roughly two decades of reduced attention from its weakening, yet nonetheless still powerful, northern neighbor in the 21^st century. The US partially disengaged from Latin America with Dick Cheney’s 2003 war on Iraq. After all, one can only do so many things. When Cheney wasn’t shooting hunting companions in the face with demands for apologies thereafter, his focus was limited chiefly to two places, Iraq and Russia. Iraq and Russia both became targets of a Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact between liberal interventionist Democrats and neocon Republicans (the dominant factions of both parties) to see US hegemony retained in what neocons called the “Project for a New American Century.” The Middle East sat on gobsmacking amounts of oil, for which Madame Secretary of State Madeline Albright infamously asserted that the loss of 500k children’s lives was “worth it” to depose Iraq’s leader. And Russia was a veritable piggy bank of natural resources for which Zbigniew Brzezinski’s musings published in 1997 on the possible busting up of Russia into three states would not be unwelcome, certainly were noted in the Kremlin.

“Mission Accomplished” and surrounding Russia with NATO (yes, those states bordering Russia, given their histories of being under Russia’s boot, wanted in) created two winners: US pensioners and Latin Americans. The former were about to see “W” Bush fully or partially privatize Social Security before the Iraq adventure required his administration’s attention. And the latter saw the wandering Eye of Sauron shift off its historical focus on Latin America. For the first time since Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s Good Neighbor Policy, Latin America exercised some autonomy in the 21^st century. Latin America’s renewed left turn began with Hugo Chavez’s 1998 election in Venezuela, and arguably only survived thereafter due to US distractions. The same goes for Lula da Silva in Brazil after winning office in 2002. Others were later elected, notably, such as Bolivia’s Evo Morales, Ecuador’s Rafael Correa and others. Even Cuba, the long-standing object of US-sponsored invasions such as the Bay of Pigs in 1961 and the CIA confirming several assassination attempts on Fidel Castro, saw the hemisphere’s largest island state get a brief respite as the US opened travel to it in 2016, even if the US’s economic war on the Pearl of the Antilles continued.

The Monroe Doctrine is a continuation of the twin movements of conquest and revolt against empire in play from the US’s birth. Americans grew weary of rule from abroad in 1776, which included their demands for ever more seizure of land from indigenous peoples. The Crown disapproved, for settler conquest created no shortage of “Indian Wars” for which they bore the cost. Readers are familiar with the rest, but summarizing quickly, John Quincy Adams as Secretary of State to President James Monroe in 1823, boldly declared the hemisphere belonged to the United States’ sphere of influence. The policy was clear, while the US continued its Manifest Destiny in conquering much of North America, other powers were to check their ambitions in the Western Hemisphere. Dozens of interventions, large and small, ensued in the next century. On the “larger” side of the ledger was President “Jimmy” Polk’s grab of 55% of Mexico in 1848.

Also of note on the bigger side of US Monroe Doctrine actions was the US occupation of Haiti in 1915, which lasted until 1934. Some 50,000 “natives” dying from the consequences of war in Haiti. The US did not so much covet Haiti’s resources as it wished to keep competitors, namely Germany, out of this country whose waters ships traveled through to access the Panama Canal. Still, money mattered. Much of the US occupation of Haiti was directed by the precursor to today’s Citibank’s Vice-President, Roger P. Farnham, whose personal investments and those of his bank were tied up in Haitian infrastructural loans.

FDR turned a page by ending the US occupation of Haiti and announcing a Good Neighbor policy. The title itself announced that the US heretofore was a bad neighbor. FDR’s death brought the return of the US as a bad neighbor until the aforementioned 21st-century reprieve anchored in other US interests. And now, here we are with Maduro hauled off by the United States on January 3, 2026.

What can we expect from the return of the Monroe Doctrine?

+ We can play Taps for International Law that previously was already ill.

+ Cuba’s government likely can’t survive. Mortally wounded and with social pathologies (e.g., street crime formally absent) laid over its poverty, its government likely falls. Marco Rubio and Trump are taking the victory lap with Florida’s substantial Cuban émigré community.

+ Latin American leaders are put on notice. Uncle Sam has returned to its historic norm of exercising dominance over the hemisphere. Latin American leaders will exercise caution in dealings with or joining the BRICS. Meanwhile, much of the rest of the world outside the Americas and Europe will run toward inclusion in the BRICS.

+ China increasingly will see the US as aggressive, if not deranged. The Middle Kingdom will likely further develop its already substantial defensive capacities. If the US decides to force the issue of Taiwan’s future status, China may respond with a blockade of the island.

+ Russia will expect a quid pro quo from Washington on spheres of influence. Yet, Trump’s successful removal of Maduro will leave some in Russia asking if they needlessly endured a 4 year long war of aggression against Ukraine (yes, the Kremlin was endlessly provoked, but, nonetheless, the aggressor).

The post Monroe Doctrine: the Bad Neighbor Returns appeared first on CounterPunch.org.

This content originally appeared on CounterPunch.org and was authored by Jeffrey Sommers.

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